Risk Probability and Impact Matrix
DE: Risiko-Wahrscheinlichkeits- und Auswirkungsmatrix
A grid mapping risk probability against impact for prioritization.
Detailed Explanation
The Risk Probability and Impact Matrix is a grid for mapping the probability of each risk occurrence against its impact on project objectives. It helps prioritize risks by assigning a risk score (probability x impact) and classifying risks as high, medium, or low priority.
The matrix typically uses a 5x5 grid with probability levels (Very Low to Very High) on one axis and impact levels on the other. Risks falling in the upper-right (high probability, high impact) demand immediate attention, while lower-left risks may only need monitoring.
The matrix is a qualitative risk analysis tool used to quickly prioritize the risk register. It enables the PM to focus limited risk management resources on the most significant risks and communicate risk priorities visually to stakeholders.
Key Points
- Maps probability x impact to calculate risk scores
- Typically a 5x5 grid with color-coded zones
- High/high risks demand immediate active response
- Low/low risks may only need monitoring
- Qualitative analysis tool for quick prioritization
- Visual communication tool for stakeholders
Practical Example
A project's risk matrix classifies 30 identified risks: 4 in the red zone (high priority — immediate response needed), 10 in the yellow zone (moderate — active monitoring and contingent responses), and 16 in the green zone (low — accept and monitor). The PM focuses detailed response planning on the 4 red-zone risks first.
Tips for Learning and Applying
Define probability and impact scales before conducting risk assessment
Use the matrix to prioritize, not to be precise — it is qualitative, not quantitative
Review the matrix regularly — risks move between zones as conditions change
Color-code the matrix (red/yellow/green) for intuitive stakeholder communication
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